The closure of Bagram changed the mood in our embassy. At the morning meeting of the senior embassy staff I asked the team to test the closure plan. Testing a contingency plan of this sort means going through it meticulously, working out what you would do in a range of scenarios. … You need to get into the right mindset, where you have crossed over from thinking about it as something you hope you will not have to do, to something you know you probably will have to do.
The aim is also to identify the plan’s weaknesses. If you do not find any, it almost certainly means you have not tested it hard enough.
As the boxer Mike Tyson said: ‘Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.’